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On the Rise: UPA, Youth, and the Sensex
May 18, 2009: From the rise of one Singh to the fall of another, from markets to make-ups, Indipepal brings you the strongest trends to emerge from the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
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UPA Emerges Victorious
May 18, 2009: Surpassing even the most optimistic numbers, the UPA has achieved a decisive win in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, securing 261 seats to the BJP-led NDA's 159. The Left secured 24 seats, and others 99.
The UPA now only needs the support of a few Independents to reach the 272 mark. Observers predict that the UPA will first prove its majority using Independents and members of the Fourth Front, and then accept partners in a bid to prevent the latter from demanding too much in return.
The Congress is not resting on its laurels, but has already moved on to portfolio politics. According to news sources, the Congress will make no compromises with UPA allies on the cabinet, and plans to retain key portfolios, including External Affairs, Home, Defence, MEA and Finance.
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Nada for NDA; Advani To Stay On
May 18, 2009: After losing to the UPA by more than 100 seats, the NDA is fraught with pointing fingers, rolling heads, and hopefully, a little introspection into what went wrong in their campaign. Soon after the loss, reports indicated that LK Advani was on the verge of stepping down as Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha.
Advani in fact asked the BJP Parliamentary Board to accept his resignation, but the body refused to accept it and persuaded him to stay on. "Advani ji will continue to be the leader of the Opposition, parliamentary board has refused his request and he will stay on as leader of opposition," said party president Rajnath Singh.
However, Advani may only continue on an interim basis. The race to find his successor is on, and contenders include Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath, and Murli Manmohan Joshi. Surprisingly, Narendra Modi, who has enjoyed a victory in Gujarat, and was once considered for PM in a BJP-led government, is absent from the list.
In fact, some members of the NDA are blaming Modi for the alliance's dismal performance nationally. Other factors identified by the party as detrimental in the elections include Varun Gandhi, a disorganised campaign, in-fighting amongst the party ranks, and the lack of a leader with Atal Bihari Vajpayee's charisma.
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Dr Singh, Jawaharlal Nehru's Successor?
May 18, 2009: After his party's thumping victory in the Lok Sabha elections, Manmohan Singh will become only the second Indian PM to get re-elected after serving a five year term. The first one to do so was a fellow Congressman and 'the nation's first PM, Jawaharlal Nehru.
Congress leaders, ranging from Sonia Gandhi, Sharad Pawar and Nalin Kohli to Omar Abdullah have issued statements endorsing Dr. Singh for PM, and claim that they anticipate no problems from other members of the UPA coalition.
In fact, political pundits claim that one of the reasons the NDA government lost was that they attempted to malign Dr Singh in their campaign, a ploy that didn't work, partly because took attention away from the much more vulnerable Gandhi dynasty, but primarily because the former (and future) PM is held in extremely high regard by the masses.
Jawaharlal Nehru ushered in a period of uninterrupted Congress monopoly in Indian politics. Now it remains to be seen if Dr Singh will do the same.
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Sensex Hits the Upper Circuit Twice for First Time in History; Trading Suspended for the Day
May 18, 2009: Surging past even the most bullish predictions, the Sensex soared 17.2 percent, or 2,099.21 points after a two hour halt today, hitting its upper circuit twice for the first time in history, and causing trading to halt for the day.
These historic gains are due to the UPA's decisive win in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, results for which were announced over the weekend. In anticipation of the results, the market had closed up 300 points on Friday, rallying for the first time in three days.
However, some Dalal Street observers remain cautious about the effect of election-euphoria on the market. Chief Investment Officer at HDFC Standard Live, Prasun Gajri, for instance, told Bloomberg that "the election outcome will only be a blip... it isn't the only determinant for the market. It may impact the markets for a month or two, but nothing beyond that."
Nevertheless, the prospect of a pro-reform, stable government in the centre has garnered approval from most quarters, including the market - now let's hope that the UPA lives up to these great expectations.
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Red is Dead: Decline of the Left
May 18, 2009: One of the biggest trends to emerge out of this election is the rapid decline of the Left, soon after the front became a big player on the national political scene, during the Indo-Us nuclear deal debacle.
The CPM's political kingdom, which until this election included swing states such a Kerela and West Bengal (despite the debacle in Singur) has now dwindled to the tiny state of Tripura. The UPA has announced that it will form a central government without its left allies.
A CPM spokesperson denied an accusation by Rajdeep Sardesai of his party being "frozen in time", but if the CPM want to stay relevant in the coming years, they will need to conduct a major overhaul of their agenda.
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UPA's Young Guns
May 18, 2009: Now that the results are final, the time has come for Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi to make some crucial decisions about who gets the much-coveted Cabinet berths and which political players get left out in the cold. Sonia Gandhi had promised that "young MPs who work hard and prove themselves will be included in the cabinet." Several young Congress leaders fit that criteria; some among these tipped to get Cabinet posts are Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sandeep Dixit, Milind Deora, Sachin Pilot and Jitin Prasada.
But if Singh is the King of this election, then Rahul Gandhi is the crown prince. Much praised for his contribution to carrying the UPA to victory, he racked up 87,000 km of travel criss-crossing the nation to campaign for his party, also insisting that the Congress go it alone in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Both strategies worked, and calls for Rahul to become PM were heard as soon as it became clear that the UPA had emerged victorious by a decisive margin.
Those calls were soon scotched by senior Congress leaders who insisted that while Rahul was the "leader for the future," PM Manmohan Singh was very much the man of the moment for the party. However, Singh himself said that he would try to persuade Rahul to join the Cabinet. Rahul, who has focused on grass-roots efforts joining politics in 2004, said that a Cabinet berth was only in the offing if he was forced to accept "by the Prime Minister or his boss."
Sources suggest that Rahul may be appointed to the post of Rural Development Minister, a fitting berth given the party's focus on rural development in the run-up to the polls. He may also be given Youth Affairs, or an economic portfolio.
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Shashi Shines
May 18, 2009: He may have lost the bid for UN Secretary General, but Shashi Tharoor is definitely a winner, a fact he proved by procuring the 2009 Lok Sabha seat out of Thiruvananthapuram with the largest margin in 30 years. He is also the only candidate not born or educated in the city, or a fluent speaker of Malayalam, to have ever won that seat.
Tharoor has undoubtably played a big role in delivering Kerala to the UPA, a state in which the Congress didn't even win one seat in the last election. Rumours have it that he will be awared a post in the government, probably in the Ministery of External Affairs.
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Friends Lost and Found: Lalu and Fourth Front Express Regret at Going it Alone
May 18, 2009: Just like in the NDA, the Fourth Front's weak performance at the polls has set some heads rolling, including that Samajwadi Party General Secretary, Azam Khan. And in a stark contrast to his confident proclaimations that their party would go it alone in Uttar Pradesh, party senior Amar Singh is now pubicly regretting breaking off from the Congress.
With the SP winning 12 seats less than in 2004, Amar Singh has announced his party's intention to support the UPA at the Centre, but anti-Fourth Front sentiments are running strong in the Congress, so it seems unlikely that he will be allowed into the coalition, and reports say that he has not been invited to today's UPA Cabinet meeting.Lalu Prasad Yadav, another politician to stray from the Congress is also eating humble pie, recognising that it was an error to fly solo. The RJD head, however, has a slightly better chance than the SP of finding his way back into the fold, mainly because of warm relations between him and Sonia Gandhi. He has been invited to today's Cabinet meeting, but is unlikely to retain the Railway Ministry portfolio, which might go to Mamata Bannerjee of the Trinamool Congress, who beat the CPI(M) in West Bengal.
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