As IndiaAs India is set to go to general elections in 13
days, India Today conducted an Opinion Poll along with AC
Neilsen to gauge the mood of the nation.
The survey was conducted between February 16 and March 10. A
total of 12,734 eligible voters across 98 constituencies in 19
states were surveyed.
The preliminary mandate is that Lok Sabha 2009 is expected to be
the closest finish ever.
- Congress and allies are expected to get between 190-199
seats
- BJP and allies may get between 172-181 seats
- Others are predicted to bag between 163-172 seats
So, for the first time-ever, instead of two there are three main
contenders in the fray, and each of these has sway over about
one-third of the Lok Sabha.
Gain and loss
The gain and loss is clearer if we look at the scenario in 2004.
The Lok Sabha in 2004 looked as follows:
- BJP+(184)
- Cong+(234)
- Others (125)
Clearly, the UPA appears to be losing ground and the Third Front
is gaining.
Reactions
BJP spokesperson claimed the Congress-led UPA disintegrating came
as no surprise. He further claimed the base of NDA still remains
wide today with SAD, JD-U, Shiv Sena and AGP being trustworthy
allies, though the BJD behaved in a opportunistic manner in
Orissa.
"The era of Third Front has gone in 1996-97 and people will go
for an alternative government," claimed BJP leader Ravishankar
Prasad.
Congress leader Sandeep Dikshit said that the possibility of a
third front government is unlikely because the BJP and the Congress
were together clocking 360 seats.
Tom Vadakkan added, "Third Front is like a mirage in the de